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Published July 16, 2009
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Upturn on the cards for business jet market: survey
UBS poll shows rising customer interest with 30-40% price drops, more financing
By VEN SREENIVASAN
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ALTHOUGH the sector is still struggling with significant oversupply, weak pricing and tight financing, the slump in the global business jet market may have hit a bottom, according to the latest industry survey by UBS.
The July 14 paper by UBS Investment Research shows that respondents, while still cautious, were not as negative as expected.
'Our July Business Jet Market Index came in at 37, slightly higher than in our prior survey in May and the fifth consecutive move higher, indicative of a continuing slowing in the rate of market deterioration,' UBS noted.
'Overall, we think our survey continues to reflect increasing customer interest on the back of 30-40 per cent price declines along with what appears to be improved financing availability. While interest has improved, actual transactions are still scarce as buyers' and sellers' expectations remain misaligned.'
UBS's Business Jet Market Survey polled 164 broker/dealers, manufacturers, fractional providers, financiers and others. The majority of respondents (78 per cent) are located in North America, although most transact a significant proportion of their business with foreign customers.
The latest index was 6 per cent higher than in the previous poll, driven by improvements in three of UBS's five component scores, including pricing, current inventory levels and willingness to increase inventory. But its customer interest and 12-month outlook scores were roughly unchanged while staying above 50, indicating continued incremental improvement.
UBS estimated that Hawker Beechcraft saw the largest decline in flight activity in May, with total cycles down 28 per cent from the previous year, followed by Bombardier, Cessna and Dassault (all down 27 per cent), and Gulfstream (down 24 per cent).
'We estimate Cessna aircraft account for 38 per cent of all business jet flights on a cycle basis over the past 12 months, followed by Bombardier at 22 per cent, Hawker Beechcraft at 16 per cent, Gulfstream at 12 per cent and Dassault at 9 per cent,' UBS said.
'Comparatively, we estimate Cessna aircraft made up 34 per cent of the installed fleet at the end of May, followed by Bombardier at 22 per cent, Hawker Beechcraft at 14 per cent, Gulfstream at 12 per cent and Dassault at 9 per cent.'