We have two firms out with positive comments on eBay saying the current quarter is tracking well:
- Citigroup says that to date they have tracked 574MM Total
Core listings consisting of 196MM U.S. listings and 378MM international
listings. Combined with the estimated 89MM store listings we have
tracked QTD, they estimate total listings growth improved to +13% Y/Y,
tracking ahead of Citi's 1Q08 growth estimate of 11% Y/Y.
- Jefferies notes eBay's February pricing tweaks are having
positive effects on 1Q results, with 1Q listings pointing to a healthy
9% Y/Y growth and translating into results likely at the higher-end of
expectations. With the stock's pullback, EBAY is the cheapest among
large cap internet plays, providing an attractive risk/reward profile.
Based on their weekly tracking of eBay listings worldwide, they're
estimating 630-650M listings for 1Q08 vs. our original projection of
602M (up 9% Y/Y at the mid-point). All else remaining constant, this
should result in upside to revenue, EBITDA and PEPS of $81M, $31M and
$0.02 for 1Q. Jeff co. is raising their estimates to $2.11B, $780.5M
and $0.39, respectively. Consensus estimates stand at revenues of
$2.05B and PFEPS of $0.39. They are also raising FY08 revenue and PEPS
estimates to $8.78B and $1.67 vs. consensus estimates of $8.70B and
$1.65.
Reiterate buy rating and $40 target.
